A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
